Why Christianity? The Pascalian Argument from the Probability of Hell
It has been said that Pascal's wager gets us to religion, but it doesn't help us decide which one to believe. Clearly atheism is not a good choice because it has no concept of hell, but how does one decide between, say, Christianity, Buddhism, and Islam? There are a number of approaches a person might take. For instance, he might learn about various world religions and choose the one whose values or philosophy resonate with him the most. Or he might assign integers to the religions he's considering and choose based on a random-number table. (If all of the religions considered had infinite heavens and/or hells, this approach would still likely be better than remaining an atheist.) Or the person might continue to apply the spirit of Pascal's wager to choose among the religions based on subjective probabilities; this is the approach I'll consider below.
Before I proceed, I should explain that this essay is not intended to portray religious choice as a cold-hearted game, nor as a silly or futile pursuit. Religion, if adopted, determines the course of one's life and is of necessity a deeply emotional, spiritual, and personal matter. But we should not ignore the potential implications of this choice for our own future after death. There may be doctrines of hell that we find unpalatable but that may nonetheless happen to be true. We have an obligation, to ourselves and to others, to consider these possibilities. I hope the reader will take this essay in that spirit.[1]
Framework
In the rest of this piece, I'll assume that the person accepting Pascal's wager aims to minimize his probability of enduring absolutely infinite suffering. This needn't be the case. He could also try to maximize his probability of gaining absolutely infinite happiness, or he could try to optimize some combination of the two. (See, e.g., the end of Objection 1 in "A Defense of Pascal's Wager.") In the remainder of this essay, I'll argue that Christianity is the religion that minimizes one's probability of absolute infinite suffering. I think it is also the religion that maximizes one's probability of absolute infinite happiness, but I won't explicitly defend that position here. Of course, since we are dealing with subjective probabilities, different individuals may come to different conclusions, but I hope the following discussion will be at least partially convincing to most readers.
If we are willing to assign best-guess numbers to various probabilities, then it's possible to calculate precisely which religion is optimal according to Pascal's wager. (See this Appendix, a separate pdf document, for details.) However, a qualitative approach may work just as well. As discussed in the Appendix, there are five important factors that determine how good a religion is as a choice for Pascal's wager:
Consideration 1, the intrinsic probability of a religion, is an enormous task to consider. Entire libraries might be filled with books, articles, and essays on this topic, and the Internet has no lack of information on it. I personally believe that Christianity is more probable than all other religions, but I don't think my argument depends on this claim. In the remainder of the piece, I'll assume that all of the religions I consider have equal intrinsic probabilities. Considerations 2-5 are, in relative terms, less controversial, because they depend only on the beliefs that a particular religion holds. Based on these factors alone, I think Christianity still comes out on top in Pascal's wager.
As a disclaimer, I should mention that I am by no means an expert on the religions that I consider below. I apologize for any errors or misperceptions on my part. I encourage readers to contact me with corrections. For a number of religions, I have left some or all of the criteria 2-5 blank, due to lack of information or, more commonly, lack of time for research. I welcome any information readers might be able to provide to fill in the gaps, and I hope to continue to add material as time goes on.
Alphabetical Religions Index
This is a list of the religions that I either examine below or would like in the future to add material about. Clicking on a link will jump you to that religion's section of this page.Atheism, Baha'i, Buddhism, Christianity, computer simulation, Confucianism, Greek mythology, Hinduism, Islam, Jainism, Judaism, Mormonism, Omega Point (Tipler), religious pluralism, Shinto, Sikhism, Taoism, Zoroastrianism
A small number of atheists believe they may be able to achieve an unlimited amount of happiness through physical means (i.e., immortality). Current physics predicts a definite end to the universe, so in order for immortals to actually live forever, they would likely have to manipulate physics in ways that are, at best, highly speculative (see "Future of the Universe").
Existence of Eternal Hell?
Many atheists reject the existence of hell. Others believe that "hell worlds" exist, though any particular individual is unlikely to find herself in one. For instance, some atheists subscribe to the philosophical position of modal realism, according to which all possible worlds actually exist. This must, of course, include hell worlds. Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis similarly implies, as Simon Gordon notes in this post, "that somewhere out there are perfectly innocent beings going through absolute Hells, much worse than Dante could have ever envisaged, and this is happening in a very real sense (there's even an infinite ensemble of copies of you which will fall into a Hell scenario in the next 10 seconds)." Of course, more "plain vanilla" multiverse scenarios (what Tegmark refers to as Level I, II, and III multiverses) can also have "hell branches."
In addition, I should note that some "atheists" in fact assign significant probability to living in a computer simulation (which I discuss in another section). For instance, Nick Bostrom, author of the "simulation argument," reported: "My gut feeling, and it’s nothing more than that, is that there’s a 20 percent chance we’re living in a computer simulation." Others assign probabilities close to 100%.
Are Adherents Saved?
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
Existence of Free Will?
The probability of free will given atheism may be fairly low. There is a good amount of scientific, including psychological, evidence against free will (source). Many atheists subscribe to the materialist worldview, in which it is hard to maintain a notion of free will even if the universe isn't physically determined because free will requires some sort of "self" that can choose actions.
Existence of Eternal Hell?
The Baha'i faith teaches that heaven and hell are not literal places but words that describe our relationship with God (source). Hell is a state of "spiritual death" brought about by our alienation from God (source).
Are Adherents Saved?
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
One of the factors that draws many people toward the Baha'i faith is its tolerance toward other religions. As one student noted, "I like that Bahs'is don't believe that just because someone isn't Baha'i they're going to hell" (source).
Bahá'u'lláh taught the unity of religion--the idea that religious prophets like Moses, Buddha, Jesus, and Muhammad were manifestations of a single God who progressively reveals himself through history. Bahá'u'lláh declared, "There can be no doubt whatever that the peoples of the world, of whatever race or religion, derive their inspiration from one heavenly Source, and are the subjects of one God" (qtd. in source).
Existence of Free Will?
Abdu'l-Bahá discussed the issue in Some Answered Questions (pp. 248-50):
Some things are subject to the free will of man, such as justice, equity, tyranny and injustice, in other words, good and evil actions; it is evident and clear that these actions are, for the most part, left to the will of man. But there are certain things to which man is forced and compelled, such as sleep, death, sickness, decline of power, injuries and misfortunes; these are not subject to the will of man, and he is not responsible for them, for he is compelled to endure them. But in the choice of good and bad actions he is free, and he commits them according to his own will. [...]
the inaction or the movement of man depend upon the assistance of God. If he is not aided, he is not able to do either good or evil. But when the help of existence comes from the Generous Lord, he is able to do both good and evil; but if the help is cut off, he remains absolutely helpless. This is why in the Holy Books they speak of the help and assistance of God. So this condition is like that of a ship which is moved by the power of the wind or steam; if this power ceases, the ship cannot move at all. Nevertheless, the rudder of the ship turns it to either side, and the power of the steam moves it in the desired direction. If it is directed to the east, it goes to the east; or if it is directed to the west, it goes to the west. This motion does not come from the ship; no, it comes from the wind or the steam.
Other Baha'i writings confirm the existence of free will, emphasizing that while we have a destiny, it is up to us to "choose to fulfill our destiny" (source).
Existence of Eternal Hell?
Perhaps surprisingly, most Buddhists do believe in many hells (source), although there is disagreement about whether these places actually exist or are states of mind (source). For instance, the Buddha is reported to have said, "When the average ignorant person makes an assertion to the effect that there is a Hell (patala) under the ocean he is making a statement which is false and without basis" (source), but some of his other statements seem to imply a literal place (source).
Fortunately, as with "all the different realms within cyclic existence," hell lasts only for a finite length of time (source). The worst hell of all, Avici, the Hell of No Interval, is perceived by its inhabitants to be eternal so that they will have no hope (source); according to Lotus Sutra 3: "[Those] who slander this Sutra [...] Will enter the Avichi hell / For an entire aeon. / At the aeon's end, born there again, / In this way they will revole, / Through uncountable aeons [...]." (An aeon in Buddhism, called a kalpa, lasts--depending on the definition--for 16 million to 1.28 trillion years.) Though the Lotus Sutra declares that the aeons will be "uncountable," it makes clear that this is hyperbole, continuing on the following line: "When they escape from the hells [...]." Avici is one of a number of Narkas, which according to one common tradition is a series of eight icy hells and eight fiery hells. According to the Kshitagarbha Sutra, "there are different Hells within the Mahachakra-vala. Besides the eighteen big Hells, there are some five hundred others to be found with different names, and still another thousand Hells" (source). Further descriptions of the torments of hells can be found in Majjhima Nikaya 129 and 130.
Are Adherents Saved?
Most Buddhists, including many in the Mahayana school, maintain that all sentient creatures will eventually break from the cycle of rebirth and achieve nirvana (source).
In the past, Buddhism sometimes encouraged conversion, but this has been less true today (source). The Dalai Lama recently condemned the practice of conversion by all religious groups, saying: "To change it is not proper, it's much safer to follow one's own religion" (source).
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
Buddhism holds that people go to hell on account of their karma rather than their beliefs (source). Those who have done evil deeds are born into hell and remain there until they have exhausted their bad karma (source). Some examples of hells based on evil actions are as follows (source):
Buddhism holds a conception of the Golden Rule nearly identical to that of Christianity (source). In addition, Christians follow most of the Five Precepts that Buddhism recommends for its lay practitioners. In the Buddha's words, they are (1) "the taking of life," (2) "stealing," (3) "illicit sexual behavior," (4) "telling falsehoods," and (5) "the drinking of fermented & distilled liquors" (source). So presumably the actions by which Christians already live would help them to avoid accumulating lots of bad karma and would, at the very least, keep them out of the worst hells.
Christians would probably not be able automatically to attain nirvana, since presumably that would require recognition of the Four Noble Truths, attention to the Noble Eightfold Path, and other efforts. On the other hand, some Buddhists maintain that enlightenment is not so limited and that "there are many paths to the truth" (source).
Existence of Free Will?
Existence of Eternal Hell?
Most Christians believe that hell exists and is eternal, although there is debate as to whether it should be interpreted as a literal place of "fire and brimstone" or just as an agonizing state of separation from God (source). Terry Watkins claims that the New Testament mentions hell at least 162 times, with 70 of those references attributed to Jesus. In the Gospels, Jesus talks more about hell than any other topic, although some liberal scholars think this mainly reflects the gospels' own beliefs (source). Among the depictions of Hell in the New Testament are the following:
This page, citing the chapter "Eternal Punishments and Rewards" of David W. Bercot, ed., A Dictionary of Early Christian Beliefs, gives quotes from several early Church Fathers that seem to imply their beliefs in eternal torment for sinners. For example:
Some argue that the early church did not see hell as a literal place of torment, separate from God; rather, they believed that all souls entered God's presence, but the wicked experienced that presence as agonizing. This view remains within the Eastern Orthodox Church to this day (source). In any event, though, the pain that the wicked endure will still be eternal.
Throughout its history, the Catholic Church has maintained the existence of hell (source). According to current Catechism of the Catholic Church, "The teaching of the Church affirms the existence of hell and its eternity. Immediately after death the souls of those who die in a state of mortal sin descend into hell, where they suffer the punishments of hell, 'eternal fire.' The chief punishment of hell is eternal separation from God [...]" (source). Pope Benedict XVI, speaking on behalf of the world's 1.1 billion Catholics, recently warned that "hell, about which little gets said today, exists and is eternal for those who shut their hearts to [Christ's] love" (source). A number of Protestants believe in hell, too. Roughly 63% of American Christians are Protestant (calculated from source). A 2003 poll found that 82 percent of American Christians believe in hell, while a similar 2004 poll found that 92 percent of those who attended church weekly believed in hell, as did 74 percent who attended almost every week. This is in spite of the fact that many churches have shied away from the topic in recent years because it's "too negative" (source).
A minority of Christians do not believe in eternal torment. Annihilationists maintain that sinners will be destroyed, not tormented eternally; this happens either immediately upon death or following resurrection and final judgement. Three prominent annihilationist denominations are the Seventh-day Adventists, Jehovah's Witnesses, and Advent Christian churches, which collectively comprise roughly 1.3% of all Christians (source), though other denominations and individuals accept annihilationism as well.
Probably the most common reason why some modern Christians reject the existence of hell is that they think it's incompatible with God's love. Yet the Bible--the Old Testament in particular--shows that God is not only concerned with love, but also with judgement. Here are just a few of the copious passages illustrating this point (note that these do not specifically refer to punishment in hell):
Will Adherents be Saved?
Would Non-Christians be Saved?
The traditional view is that anyone who doesn't accept Jesus will not be saved:
In recent years, the belief that members of other faiths will also make it to heaven has grown, especially in the US (source).
Universalists--such as the Primitive Baptist Universalists, Trinitarian Universalists, and Unitarian Universalists--maintain that Jesus will save everyone. Related is the concept of apocatastasis, according to which God will ultimately be reconciled with all creatures: people, angels, and devils. This belief was held by a few in the early church but later almost completely died out.
Existence of Free Will?
Here is a list of some of the major competing Christian doctrines about the extent to which God predestines souls to salvation and damnation:
| Doctrine Name | Belief | Officially Endorsed by |
| Catechism of the Catholic Church | "When [God] establishes his eternal plan of 'predestination', he includes in it each person's free response to his grace [...]." (#600) "God created man a rational being, conferring on him the dignity of a person who can initiate and control his own actions. 'God willed that man should be "left in the hand of his own counsel," so that he might of his own accord seek his Creator and freely attain his full and blessed perfection by cleaving to him.'" (#1730) |
Catholic Church |
| Calvinism | "[...] God by his eternal and immutable counsel determined once for all those whom it was his pleasure one day to admit to salvation, and those whom, on the other hand, it was his pleasure to doom to destruction. We maintain that this counsel, as regards the elect, is founded on his free mercy, without any respect to human worth [this is known as unconditional election or irresistible grace], while those whom he dooms to destruction are excluded from access to life by a just and blameless, but at the same time incomprehensible judgment." (John Calvin, Institutes of the Christian Religion, Book III, Chapter 21, section 7) | Particular Baptists, Reformed Baptists, Presbyterians, and Congregationalists. (source) |
| Arminianism | God gives every person prevenient grace, which is essentially an invitation to join him in salvation. Individuals can then freely accept or reject the offer. | Methodists, Free Will Baptists, General Baptists, Churches of Christ, Disciples of Christ, Church of the Nazarene, Seventh-day Adventists, Pentecostals, Charismatics, and most Southern Baptists. (source) |
| Molinism | More a philosophical position than a theological one, Molinism claims that before God created the universe, he gave consideration to how free agents would act in various possible worlds. For instance, suppose God realized that if he created a world of type X, then in that world person Y would freely come to faith. After consideration of similar factors, God actualized a possible world of type X. Thus, he brought it about that person Y would come to faith even though person Y still freely chose faith. | ? |
| corporate election | God does not choose to elect a fixed number of individuals. Rather, he applies his saving grace to the body of the church as a whole, and individuals are free to join that body. | ? |
Of the above, only Calvinism maintains that man cannot affect his own fate by his will.
This article shows that most Christian denominations believe in some form of free will.
Existence of Eternal Hell?One can imagine simulators who would torture their simulations, either for entertainment or as punishment. Given the massive amounts of suffering in our world (particularly on the part of wild animals), we needn't believe that our simulators are particularly nice. Of course, all such hells will be finite unless our simulators have access to infinite computational resources.
Are Adherents Saved?
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
Existence of Free Will?
Existence of Eternal Hell?
Confucianism is focused mainly on ethical and philosophical concerns; many do not even consider it a religion in the usual sense (source). Confucius himself refused to comment on heaven, hell, or mysticism--telling his followers to "Show respect to the spirits and deities, then keep away from them" (source). In Analects, Chapter 11, we read this story:
Chi Lu asked [Confucius] about serving the spirits of the dead. The Master said, "While you are not able to serve men, how can you serve their spirits?" Chi Lu added, "I venture to ask about death?" He was answered, "While you do not know life, how can you know about death?"
Of course, a few later followers of Confucius introduced their own ideas of the afterlife into his teachings, including sometimes notions of hell. A pamphlet from the Ming Dynasty, for instance, warned women that adulterous behavior and "long-tongued" gossip would lead to punishment in hell (source). More recently, a popular Chinese book called Record of a Journey into Hell, published in 1978, describes the torments of various levels of hell (p. 113 of source). The work can hardly be called "Confucian," since the book states that all of "Confucianism, Taoism, Buddhism, Christianity and Islam are regarded as orthodox teachings" (p. 27a). The work is more a reflection of the ideas of a particular group in Taiwan than of any traditional religion, and I mention it here only because it is tangentially relevant.
A similar statement might be made about The Bloody Ten Courts of Hell, a popular, though highly graphic, series of sculptures and scenes at the Haw Par Villa theme park in Singapore. The display is sometimes portrayed as a reflection of Confucian beliefs about hell (source), although as one commenter noted, "I don't think it is helpful to try to make a theology or systematic teaching of eschatology of Confucianism from Haw Par Villa. That is like trying to teach the Doctrine of Christian Joy from an observation of Disneyland." In any event, like Chinese hells in general (p. 112 of source), punishments in the hells of Haw Par Villa are temporary (source).
Are Adherents Saved?
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
As noted above, traditional Confucianism has no official doctrine of hell. Below, I'll focus on the vision of hell portrayed at Haw Par Villa, but this is perhaps more appropriately considered as one of a number of folk beliefs, whether "Confucian" or not.
As in Buddhism, Taoism, and other religions, punishments in The Bloody Ten Courts of Hell are based on deeds more than beliefs (source). When souls enter the First Court of Hell, they are judged. Those who have done more good than evil during their lives are allowed to walk over a golden bridge to a heavenly state; the rest face punishment in each of the nine stages of hell according to their misdeeds. Afterwards, they will enter the Tenth Stage of Hell, where the President will determine the form in which they will be reincarnated (source).
The sins punished include the following: stealing, smuggling, breaking promises, hurting friends, cruelty to animals, killing animals, gossip, disrespect of elders, greed, corrpution as a government official, tax evasion, provoking fights, using drugs, producing erotic literature or paintings, engaging in blasphemy, and "committing crimes against Confucianism" (source). In all except possibly the last two of these areas, Christians would presumably not fare too badly.
Existence of Free Will?
Existence of Eternal Hell?
Greek mythology told of an underworld called Hades, as well as a God of the same name who ruled that underworld. Older myths depict Hades as merely an abode of the dead where all people go--a similar concept to Sheol in Judaism (source). Some later thinkers developed the notion of judgement after death, which included four possible destinations (source):
Initially, Tartarus was portrayed as a place to confine those who had committed specific crimes against the gods. For instance, when Sisyphus reported Zeus's rape of Aegina, Zeus had Sisyphus punished eternally by having him roll a boulder up a hill, only to see it fall back down again. Zeus punished Ixion for lusting after Hera by fastening him to a burning fire wheel. For trying to serve his son as a meal to the gods, Tantalus was punished in Tartarus with a fruit tree and river of water that receded out of reach whenever he tried to satisfy his hunger or thirst. (From this comes the word tantalize.) Also shut away in Tartarus were the cyclopes, hecatoncheires, and titans (source). In later years, especially in Roman mythology, Tartarus came to be seen as a place for terrible sinners more generally.
Would torment in hell be eternal? In Plato's Phaedo, Socrates states that only the worst of crimes would be punished forever (source):
And those who appear to have lived neither well nor ill, go to the river Acheron, and mount such conveyances as they can get, and are carried in them to the lake, and there they dwell and are purified of their evil deeds, and suffer the penalty of the wrongs which they have done to others, and are absolved, and receive the rewards of their good deeds according to their deserts. But those who appear to be incurable by reason of the greatness of their crimes-who have committed many and terrible deeds of sacrilege, murders foul and violent, or the like-such are hurled into Tartarus, which is their suitable destiny, and they never come out. Those again who have committed crimes, which, although great, are not unpardonable-who in a moment of anger, for example, have done violence to a father or mother, and have repented for the remainder of their lives, or who have taken the life of another under like extenuating circumstances-these are plunged into Tartarus, the pains of which they are compelled to undergo for a year, but at the end of the year the wave casts them forth-mere homicides by way of Cocytus, parricides and matricides by Pyriphlegethon-and they are borne to the Acherusian Lake, and there they lift up their voices and call upon the victims whom they have slain or wronged, to have pity on them, and to receive them, and to let them come out of the river into the lake. And if they prevail, then they come forth and cease from their troubles; but if not, they are carried back again into Tartarus and from thence into the rivers unceasingly, until they obtain mercy from those whom they have wronged: for that is the sentence inflicted upon them by their judges. Those also who are remarkable for having led holy lives are released from this earthly prison, and go to their pure home which is above, and dwell in the purer earth; and those who have duly purified themselves with philosophy live henceforth altogether without the body, in mansions fairer far than these, which may not be described, and of which the time would fail me to tell.
Socrates continued with a qualification (source):
I do not mean to affirm that the description which I have given of the soul and her mansions is exactly true-a man of sense ought hardly to say that. But I do say that, inasmuch as the soul is shown to be immortal, he may venture to think, not improperly or unworthily, that something of the kind is true. The venture is a glorious one, and he ought to comfort himself with words like these, which is the reason why lengthen out the tale. Wherefore, I say, let a man be of good cheer about his soul, who has cast away the pleasures and ornaments of the body as alien to him, and rather hurtful in their effects, and has followed after the pleasures of knowledge in this life; who has adorned the soul in her own proper jewels, which are temperance, and justice, and courage, and nobility, and truth-in these arrayed she is ready to go on her journey to the world below, when her time comes.
Are Adherents Saved?
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
As Socrates' comments above indicate, judgement in the Greek afterlife seems largely to have depended on the morality of ones earthly actions. Carlos Parada notes:
Among those punished in Tartarus are also those who in life hated their own brothers, those who struck their parents, those who loving fraud entangled their clients, those who kept their wealth for themselves without ever sharing (these are the majority), those who killed for adultery, those engaged in treason, those who corrupted the laws and became dictators, those who entered the beds of their daughters, and others [...]. (source)
Presumably Christians would, for their own reasons, avoid these crimes.
In Seneca's Hercules Furens 2, Theseus observes:
What each has done, he suffers; upon its author the crime comes back, and the guilty soul is crushed by its own form of guilt. I have seen bloody chiefs immured in prison; the insolent tyrant’s back torn by plebeian hands. He who reigns mildly and, though lord of life, keeps guiltless hands, who mercifully and without bloodshed rules his realm, checking his own spirit, he shall traverse long stretches of happy life and at last gain the skies, or else in bliss reach Elysium’s joyful land and sit in judgment there. Abstain from human blood, all ye who rule: with heavier punishment your sins are judged.
Similarly, in Chapter X of Plato's Republic, Socrates tells Glaucon the Myth of Er, in which a man named Er sees a vision of the afterlife. Er watched the dead undergo judgement (source):
for every wrong which they had done to any one they suffered tenfold; or once in a hundred years --such being reckoned to be the length of man's life, and the penalty being thus paid ten times in a thousand years. If, for example, there were any who had been the cause of many deaths, or had betrayed or enslaved cities or armies, or been guilty of any other evil behaviour, for each and all of their offences they received punishment ten times over, and the rewards of beneficence and justice and holiness were in the same proportion.
At the conclusion of the 1,000 years, all but the most wicked souls would be released. Socrates goes on to describe how the souls would then draw lots for their next life. Many who had come from heaven foolishly chose what they thought would be good next lives, only to be disappointed; in this way, "many of the souls exchanged a good destiny for an evil or an evil for a good." Only the philosophers were wise enough in their choices to avoid this cycle of good and bad lives.
Existence of Free Will?
Greek mythology held a prominent place for the Moirae, or fates, who spun the threads of each man's destiny, including the conditions of his birth and death. The Greek notion of fatalism is perhaps best well known through Oedipus Rex, a play in which Oedipus fulfills an oracle's prophecy that he will murder his father and marry his mother, in spite of his best attempts to avoid this fate. Yet, alongside these notions, many Greeks probably believed in free will. As this article observes: "The Fates did not abruptly interfere in human affairs but availed themselves of intermediate causes, and determined the lot of mortals not absolutely, but only conditionally, even man himself, in his freedom was allowed to exercise a certain influence upon them."
Modern observers often view the Stoic school of thought as advancing a deterministic world view, because it emphasized accepting the world as it is. The Stoic philosopher Epictetus quoted another Stoic, Cleanthes, with the following (qtd. in source):
Conduct me, Zeus, and thou, O Destiny,
Wherever your decrees have fixed my lot.
I follow cheerfully; and, did I not,
Wicked and wretched, I must follow still. (p.39)
Still, the modern question of free will vs. determinism seems only to have been a concern of later Stoics (source and others cited therein). Many Stoics accepted both destiny and free will, giving the analogy of a person in a river: the person can try to resist and swim against the current, but he will ultimately be swept along nonetheless (source). In his Hymn to Zeus, Cleanthes had this to say about free choice:
The whole universe, spinning around the earth,
goes wherever you lead it and is willingly guided by you.
[...]
O God, without you nothing comes to be on earth,
neither in the region of the heavenly poles, nor in the sea,
except what evil men do in their folly.
Existence of Eternal Hell?
There is debate within Hinduism about the existence of hell: Some maintain that hell is symbolic of suffering in this life, while others point to passages in the Mahabharata and the Puranas that refer to a literal hell (source). Swami Vivekananda had this to say in his Steps Of Hindu Philosophic Thought: "In the Vedas, there is no mention of hell. But our Puranas, the later books of our scriptures, thought that no religion could be complete, unless hells were attached to it, and so they invented all sorts of hells."
The Garuda Purana includes a detailed description of Naraka, or hell; written during the middle ages, it may have been partially inspired by Christian writings on the subject (source). Yama is the god who rules Naraka. Unlike the devil, Yama is a god of virtue who righteously oversees punishment of evil (source). Chitragupta is the record keeper who keeps track of whether individuals have followed or broken the rules of dharma, so that they can be judged fairly. The torments of Naraka, while agonizing, are only temporary: "Having experienced in due order the torments below, he comes here again [through reincarnation], purified" (III.71). The Bhagavata Purana describes 28 main hells, consisting of different torments to punish different crimes (source). But again, these are for the purpose of atonement. As this commentary in Hinduism Today noted, "Unlike many faiths, Hinduism admits of no mortal sin, no eternal hell, no satan, no intrinsic evil."
Are Adherents Saved?
Most Hindus believe that everyone has committed at least one sin that needs to be punished; however, those whose lives have been generally admirable need only endure brief suffering before ascending to Swarga, a temporary heaven (source). Some Hindus, such as the Sri Vaishnavas and Gaudiya Vaishnavas, believe that Vishnu ordered Yama to avoiding bringing to hell the Vaishnavas, among whom are those that hold a "firm belief in Vishnu and his various forms" (source).
Some Hindus believe that one must be born into Hinduism and that Westerners cannot convert, although others disagree, and some groups do allow converts (source). "Generally speaking, Hindus are very tolerant and do not feel the need for proselytizing" (source).
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
Presumably Christians would not automatically attain the Hindu ideal of Moksha, liberation from the cycles of worldly rebirth. Doing this requires at least one of the following (source):
Nevertheless, Christians would probably avoid accumulating an excess of bad karma simply by voluntarily engaging in good actions, called punya, and avoiding many types of bad actions, or papa, such as theft and murder.
The Chapter IV of the Garuda Purana includes the following list of sinners deserving hell. Christians aim, for other reasons, to avoid most, but perhaps not all, of these actions.
5-12. Slayers of Brahmins, drinkers of intoxicants, slayers of owe, infanticides, murderers of women, destroyers of the embryo, and those who commit secret sins,
Those who steal the wealth of the teacher, the property of the temple or of the twice-born; those who take away the possessions of women, and those who steal the possessions of children;
Those who do not repay their debts; those who misappropriate deposits; those who betray confidence; and those who kill with poisonous foods;
Those who seize upon the fault and depreciate the merit, who are jealous of those who have merit, who are attached to the wicked, who are foolish, who turn away from the company of the good;
Those who despise places of pilgrimage, good men, good actions, teachers and Shining Ones; those who disparage than Puranas, the Vedas, the Mimamsa, the Nyaya and the Vedanta;
Those who are elated at seeing the miserable, who try to make the happy wretched, who speak evil words, and are always evil-minded;
Those who do not listen to good counsel nor even to the word of the Sastras, who are self-satisfied, who are unbending, who are foolish, who thinks themselves learned;--
These, and many others, very sinful, devoid of righteousness, certainly go on the Way of Yama, weeping day and night.
The passage continues to list other wicked people, including "who kills animals for his own gratification," "who eats flesh," and "who drinks the milk of the tawny cow" (an interesting Pascalian argument for veganism). The passage concludes by describing how the souls in hell will be reincarnated and eventually become humans once again.
Note that if these requirements are hard for Christians to fulfill, they may also be hard for Hindus to fulfill, since many are based on works rather than faith. One the other hand, many Hindus probably do not take each of these statements literally.
Existence of Free Will?
Existence of Eternal Hell?
Islamic holy texts are very explicit about the existence of hell, which is called--among other things--Jahannam. Actually, as Jane I. Smith and Yvonne Yazbeck Haddad explain in The Islamic Understanding of Death and Resurrection (p. 45-47) , most Muslims believe that everyone will endure some torment in the grave, with punishment for the righteous serving the purpose of purification. Eventually, however, Allah will corporally resurrect the dead for judgement: "Then as for him whose good deeds are preponderant, these are the successful. And as for him whose good deeds are light, these are they who shall have lost their souls, abiding in hell" (Qur'an, 23:102-3).
In Answering Islam, Norman L. Geisler and Abdul Saleeb report (p. 122) that most orthodox Muslims believe that the wicked will be tormented eternally in hell. For instance, 10:52-53 declares: "Then it shall be said to those who were unjust: Taste abiding chastisement; you are not requited except for what you earned. And they ask you: Is that true? Say: Aye! by my Lord! it is most surely the truth, and you will not escape." However, Smith and Haddad note (pp. 92-95, 143-44) that some Muslims believe that hell's torment may not last eternally. The following two passages, for instance, speak of hell's torment lasting for as long as Allah wills: "He shall say: The fire is your abode, to abide in it, except as Allah is pleased; surely your Lord is Wise, Knowing" (6:128), and "Abiding therein so long as the heavens and the earth endure, except as your Lord please" (11:107). In addition, 78:21-23 notes that "Surely hell lies in wait, A place of resort for the inordinate, Living therein for ages" (not necessarily forever). This page suggests that while 32:14 warns the wicked that they will "taste the abiding [eternal] chastisement for what you did," eternity may only refer to a very long finite length of time. The author continues: "But I honestly don't know the answer. No one does."
Geisler and Saleeb add (p. 126) that some Muslims believe "that after a certain period of time God himself will bring out a large number of the damned from hell, not because of their own merit but to demonstrate his compassion on his creatures." The mercy of God is referenced several times in the Qur'an (p. 125), such as in 39:53: "Say: O my servants! who have acted extravagantly against their own souls, do not despair of the mercy of Allah; surely Allah forgives the faults altogether; surely He is the Forgiving the Merciful."
Are Adherents Saved?
Some Muslims believe that they will be saved by faith alone, while others maintain that good actions are essential as well (source). In any event, Geisler and Saleeb argue (p. 126) that "There is no assurance of salvation in Islam. From the very beginning of Islam almost all Muslims have feared their eternal destiny." In Islam, Isma'il R. Al. Faruqi agrees (p. 5):
great as it may be in the eyes of Islam for any person to make the decision to enter the faith, the entry constitutes no guarantee of personal justification in the eyes of God. [...] there is nothing the new initiate can do which would assure him or her of salvation [...]. there is no point at which Muslims may carry their titles to Paradise, as it were, in their pockets. [...] Religious justification is thus the Muslims' eternal hope, never their complacent certainty, nor for even a fleeting moment.
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
The general view is that they will not be saved, because salvation requires, among other things, believing that Muhammad was Allah's prophet (source). As the Qur'an 4:150-51 says, "Surely those who disbelieve in Allah and His apostles and (those who) desire to make a distinction between Allah and His apostles and say: We believe in some and disbelieve in others, and desire to take a course between (this and) that. These it is that are truly unbelievers, and We have prepared for the unbelievers a disgraceful chastisement." Muhammad Muhsin Khan, in the introduction to The Translation of the Meanings of Sahih Al-Bukhari, quotes the following hadith from Muhammad: "Any Jew or Christian who heard about me and did not believe in me and what was revealed to me of the Holy Qur'an and any traditions, his ultimate destination is the Hell Fire." Of course, members of other religions are no better off; Hindus and members of local pagan religions, sometimes pejoratively called kafir (infidel), will face punishment for the sin of shirk (polytheism), which contradicts God's tawhid (unity). In summary, 3:85 declares: "And whoever desires a religion other than Islam, it shall not be accepted from him, and in the hereafter he shall be one of the losers."
Still, Geisler and Saleeb point out (p. 127) that "many contemparary Muslims claim that anyone, regardless of his particular faith, can obtain salvation provided that he has been a 'doer of good' in his life." According to 2:111-12:
And they say: None shall enter the garden (or paradise) except he who is a Jew or a Christian. These are their vain desires. Say: Bring your proof if you are truthful. Yes! whoever submits himself entirely to Allah and he is the doer of good (to others) he has his reward from his Lord, and there is no fear for him nor shall he grieve.
Geisler and Saleeb add (p. 127): "According to the earlier Meccan suras, Christians and Jews, as people of the book (ahl el kitab) were viewed as going to heaven. Many Muslims might still believe this, even though it is hard to reconcile with [...] later suras." Examples include the following passages:
This site lists among the "main Dogmas of Islam" shared by many Sunni Muslims the belief that "Grave sinners of the Muslim community will be punished in Hell, but not eternally. No monotheist will remain eternally in Hell."
Existence of Free Will?
Historically, there were two polar-opposite views within Islam regarding free will (source). The Qadariyya (or Qadariyah), and later the Mu'tazilah, maintained that people choose their actions freely and that Allah therefore does not know what they will do in advance. They viewed salvation as dependent upon good deeds, which would be weighed against bad ones (source). The Jabriyya, and later the Ash'ari, believed in absolute predestination. According to Arthur Jeffrey's Islam: Muhammad and His Religion (pp. 147-48), "the free-will parties (al-qadariyya) were ultimately defeated," so that in the present day, "Orthodox Islam teaches the absolute predestination of both good and evil, that all our thoughts, words and deeds, whether good or evil, were foreseen, foreordained, determined and decreed from all eternity, and that everything that happens takes place according to what has been written for it."
Muslims believe in al-qada wa al-qadr, "the divine decree and the predestination" (source). In particular, qadar ("divine destiny") is the last of the six articles of faith held by the Sunnis. The Qur'an speaks of a Preserved Book in which Allah has written down all that ever has and ever will happen (source): "Do you not know that Allah knows what is in the heaven and the earth? Surely this is in a book; surely this is easy to Allah" (22:70). The Qur'an (18:23-24) requires Muslims to qualify statements of their future intentions with the phrase "Insha'Allah" ("if it is God's will"); the phrase "Masha'Allah" ("God has willed it") is often used in commenting on events that have already happened.
Numerous passages in the Qur'an support the view that Allah has already decided the salvation or damnation of each individual:
Many hadiths express similar ideas (see, e.g., source). According to the Sahih of al-Muslim:
Verily, each one of you is formed in his mother's womb forty days as a drop, then he is something suspended for a similar period, then he is a piece of flesh like a chewed piece of meat for another period of forty days, then the angel is sent to insert the soul. This angel is ordered to record four things: the sustenance which he will receive during his lifetime, the length of his life, all actions that he will do, and whether he will end up miserable (in hell) or joyous (in paradise). I swear by the One other than whom there is no deity, one of you may do the works of the people of paradise right up until there is only an arm's length between him and paradise, but his destiny overtakes him, so he does the actions of the people of the fire and enters it. And, verily, one of you may do the works of the people of hell until there is nothing between them and hell except for one arm's length, but his destiny overtakes him, and so he does the works of the people of paradise, and enters it." (qtd. in source)
Kenneth Cragg cites on pp. 60-61 of The Call of the Minaret a creed from Al-Nasafi that states:
And God Most High is the Creator of all actions of His creatures whether of unbelief or belief, of obedience or rebellion: all of them are by the Will of God and His sentence and His conclusion and His decreeing.
In Textual Sources for the Study of Islam, Andrew Rippin and Jan Knappert include a confession declaring:
Both good things and evil things are the result of God's decree. It is the duty of every Muslim to believe this. [...] When God rewards the pious, that is pure kindness and when He punishes the sinners, that is pure justice, since the piety of humans is not useful for God, nor does the sinner do Him any harm. It is He who causes harm and good. Rather the good works of some and the evil of others are signs that God wishes to punish some and to reward others.
Many Muslim theologians have tried to reconcile predestination with Allah's justice by maintaining that while Allah ultimately decides all actions, he does so by creating in man a power at the moment of action; as a result, deeds can be "properly attributed" to man, and man is justly punished or rewarded accordingly (source). Others have denied that anything other than free will is consistent with Allah's justice (e.g., source).
Belief in complete predestination is by no means universal. Many Shia Muslims especially believe that individuals choose to become nearer or farther from Allah by their free actions (source). A few passages from the Qur'an support free will, including:
Existence of Eternal Hell?
The doctrines of Jainism regarding hell are similar to those of the other Dharmic religions: Buddhism, Hinduism, and Sikhism. In particular, Jains believe that the universe consists of various levels of existence, including hells (eight of them--source), and that history cycles through them with down-swings and up-swings (source). Moksha can only be attained by asceticism and withdrawal from worldly involvement.
Are Adherents Saved?
Jainism does not seek converts, and in fact, there are no established rituals with which to become a Jain. However, genuinely interested individuals may follow Jain principles and call themselves Jain (source).
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
Jains emphasize the importance of karma, which includes both good thoughts and actions. Some actions considered sinful are violence, lying, stealing, sexual promiscuity, greed, anger, arrogance, gossip, and hatred (source). While Christians will probably not attain enlightenment, they may at least avoid some torments in hell on account of good actions.
Jainism is often known as a tolerant religion (source). "Jains are usually very welcoming and friendly toward other faiths and often help with interfaith functions. Several non-Jain temples in India are administered by Jains" (source). It is sometimes claimed that Jain perspectives on the contextual relativity of truth lead it to a sort of "intellectual ahimsa" with other belief systems, though this has been disputed (source).
Existence of Free Will?
Existence of Eternal Hell?
Jewish beliefs about the afterlife are very diverse. Some, such as the Sadducees, rejected belief in an afterlife or resurrection because the Torah does not describe it explicitly (source). In general, Jewish literature is largely silent on the topic of what happens after death, partially because early Jews believed that God always punished and rewarded individuals or their descendants in this life (source). As Tracey R. Rich explains, "because Judaism is primarily focused on life here and now rather than on the afterlife, Judaism does not have much dogma about the afterlife, and leaves a great deal of room for personal opinion."
Ancient Jews largely shared the belief of their other Semitic neighbors that all people--both righteous and wicked--went to the underworld of Sheol upon death (source). This was not a place of torment but rather a dark, chthonic realm of eternal existence. Around 586 BCE, when Jews were taken captive to Babylon, they may have been exposed to Zoroastrian ideas of resurrection (source). Some Jews developed the idea that only the faithful would be brought back to life. For instance, the Book of Enoch describes how the righteous would be taken from Sheol and sent to a restored Jerusalem, where they would live happily for 500 years before dieing and ceasing to exist (source). Later, during the Greek occupation beginning in 332 BCE, some Jews adopted the Hellenistic idea of reward and punishment in the afterlife based on one's deeds (source).
Many modern Jews believe that after death people go to Gan Eden, "a place of spiritual perfection," but that few will go there immediately (source). Instead, most will first enter Gehenna, a sort of Jewish purgatory, where people will be punished according to their degree of bodily lavishness during life (source). The purpose is not torment but spiritual purification; one rabbi described it as a hospital for the soul that, while painful, will ultimately be beneficial (source). In any event, a person does not stay in Gehenna for more than 12 months, and many leave sooner (source). The only exception is for extremely wicked people, like Pharaoh, who may be punished eternally (source) or may be utterly destroyed (source).
Are Adherents Saved?
According to Judaism, nearly all Jews will go to heaven, if it exists.
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
Judaism maintains that righteous gentiles will be saved as well as Jews (source). While Jews must follow the 613 mitzvot (commandments) in the Torah, non-Jews can also be considered "Righteous Among the Nations" by following the seven Noahide Laws, which the Babylonian Talmud (Sanhedrin 56) describes as follows: "Our Rabbis taught: seven precepts were the sons of Noah commanded: social laws; to refrain from blasphemy, idolatry; adultery; bloodshed; robbery; and eating flesh cut from a living animal." While one might expect that Christians would follow all of these laws anyway, some Jews claim that the Christian belief in the Trinity is a form of avodah zarah (idolatry), which would prevent Christians from being Noahides; other Jews argue that trinitarian belief may fall under the category of shittuf ("association"), which may be permitted for gentiles only (source). In any event, following the Noahide laws unintentionally may contradict the spirit in which they were established: As Howard Rollin points out, "The Sons of Noah exist, basically, because rabbis created a procedural step for the non-Jew to convert to Rabbinic Judaism. [...] There has never been any explicit desire, intent, or promotion by Rabbinic Judaism to convert non-Jews into Sons of Noah only. It was just a belief for the non-Jew in 'limbo,' while conversion to Judaism was taking place."
Existence of Free Will?
Mormonism (The Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter-Day Saints)
I won't get into the debate about whether Mormons ought to be considered Christians. Suffice it to say that they do hold nonstandard views on heaven and hell. Mormons believe in three levels of heaven (see this source and others cited therein):
Existence of Eternal Hell?
Some Mormons, including Apostle John Widtsoe, have claimed that there is no hell (source). Most Mormons believe that hell does exist, but that it will last only 1,000 years, after which sinners will rise to heaven (source). However, those who have committed the unpardonable sin--i.e., those "who had testimonies of Jesus through the Holy Ghost and knew the power of the Lord but allowed Satan to overcome them"--will remain in outer darkness eternally, along with Satan and his angels (source).
Are Adherents Saved?
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
Ordinary Christians will be saved if Mormonism is true (source), probably inhabiting the Terrestrial Kingdom. They will almost certainly not go to hell for more than a finite length of time.
Existence of Free Will?
Existence of Eternal Hell?
Frank Tipler, a mathematics professor at Tulane University, proposed what he calls the "omega point theory" in his 1994 book, The Physics of Immortality. The theory predicts that an advanced AI will eventually "resurrect" all previously living humans through simulation, some of whom might enter a state of existence we would call hell (reported in source). The simulation could be performed fast enough that they would experience subjectively eternal existence in a finite amount of time. Tipler's ideas have been widely discredited by scientists (source).
Are Adherents Saved?
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
In the preface (p. ix) to The Physics of Immortality, Tipler writes: "When I began my career as a cosmologist some twenty years ago, I was a convinced atheist. I never in my wildest dreams imagined that one day I would be writing a book purporting to show that the central claims of Judeo-Christian theology are in fact true, that these claims are straightforward deductions of the laws of physics as we now understand them." On his website, Tipler affirms "that the Bible says God is the Ultimate Future" (source), and he has a new book called The Physics of Christianity (source).
Existence of Free Will?
In Chapter VII of The Physics of Immortality, Tipler claims to "provide a completely new argument for free will" according to which "both [... compatibilism and libertarianism] are correct" (p. 186). Of course, only libertarian free will is relevant for Pascal's wager. I haven't examined Tipler's position in enough detail to know whether I would agree with his classification of it as libertarian.
Relatively common among liberal Westerners (and perhaps others) are sundry views that fall broadly under the category of "religious pluralism." These include the notions that there are many paths to God / enlightenment, that God has revealed him/her/itself to different people at different times in different ways, or that there are multiple realms of truth for different people and cultures. From an evidential standpoint, such views do not fare badly: Certainly they explain the variety and diversity of religion found throughout the world, and they don't find themselves in the awkward position of explaining why the single true God kept himself hidden from so many people for so long.
Existence of Eternal Hell?
I would guess that many adherents of pluralistic views adopt a modern, liberal position on hell: Namley, that it doesn't exist, or if it does, it's of a "spiritual" nature and perhaps refers to our present existence on earth. However, such a position needn't inherently accompany pluralism. Perhaps God reveals himself in different ways to different people, but for each such group, he requires compliance with the particular religious commands they were given. So, for instance, Christians would still have to trust Jesus to avoid hell, while Buddhists would still have to withdraw from the world to attain enlightenment. Under this scenario, Pascal's wager would apply just as much as ever.
A problem arises, though, in figuring out which of the religions a particular person is supposed to follow. The religion of one's own culture? What if there is no single such religion? Alternatively, one could put relatively uniform probability over a large number of possible religions that one might be intended to follow, in which case the analysis would boil down to something very similar to that of the present piece: assessing each of the religions on other Pascalian grounds.
One can imagine many alternate soteriological scenarios for religious pluralism. Indeed, this is part of the problem with it from a Pascalian perspective: It places broad probability over a wide range of scenarios for what punishment and salvation might look like, many of which are contradictory and so "cancel each other out."
Are Adherents Saved?
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
Existence of Free Will?
Existence of Eternal Hell?
Are Adherents Saved?
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
Existence of Free Will?
Existence of Eternal Hell?
Though Sikhism drew inspiration from both Hindu and Muslim traditions (source), it adopted the Hindu position on hell: namely, that hells and heavens are finite stages of existence (Surinder Singh Kohli, Sikhism and Major World Religions, 1995, p. 96). Like Hinduism, Sikhism also adopted the doctrine of metempsychosis, or transmigration of souls.
Sikhism does have some imagery of hell. For instance, p. 1026 of the Adi Granth reads:
There is a stream of fire from which comes poisnous flames.
There is none else there except the self.
The waves of the ocean of fire are aflame.
And the sinners are burning in them. (qtd. in source)
Some interpret these teachings literally. However, many Sikhs believe that heaven and hell are not physical places; rather, hell is the cycle of rebirth in the world (source and source). This site notes, "the result of a sinful life is its adverse effect on character from which ultimately comes suffering and torment. In short, to be in hell is to be out of the presence of God." And according to Sikhism.com, "Sikhs do not believe in heaven or hell. Heaven can be experienced by being in tune with God while still alive. Conversely, the suffering and pain caused by ego is seen as hell on earth."
Are Adherents Saved?
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
Sikhism.com states:
Sikhs believe they have no right to impose their beliefs on others or even to cajole members of other religions to convert. Such practices are strictly forbidden in Sikhism. Sikhs are required to defend the freedom of worship of other religions just as they would their own. Sikhs do not believe that followers of other religions are doomed in the eyes of God regardless of their personal character and behavior, nor does being born into a Sikh family guarantee salvation.
Similarly, this page on the Sikh Missionary Society U.K. site notes:
God does not insist that we worship him. In His generosity, He gives to all, the high and the low, the educated and the illiterate, even to those whoa are anti-God; Athiest. [...] A positive approach to God will yield results. Union with God is our goal. Hiw great qualities, Truth, Goodness, Beauty, Love, Purity, Peace, Wisdom, Justice, Mercy etc. are the ladder to Him. By concentrating on these qualities, we through auto suggestion, imbibe such qualities.
Nonetheless, Sikhism does believe in the inexorable law of karma. Chitra and Gupta are supposed to be the scribes who record a "balance-sheet" of the actions of each individual (source). Sikhism describes Five Moral Evils (source):
To counteract these evils are the Eight Virtues (source):
Existence of Free Will?
Existence of Eternal Hell?
Classical Taoism had no concept of hell; indeed, it had no notion of an eternal soul in general (source). In time, though, Taoism began to acquire some of the beliefs of the Chinese folk religions, including in some cases, beliefs about hell.
One traditional Chinese view, held by some Buddhists as well as some Taoists, tells of an underworld called Diyu, "a maze of underground levels and chambers" (source). This "Earth Prison" is not a place of eternal judgement but a realm where individuals atone for their evil deeds (source). Once they have done so, Meng Po, the Lady of Forgiveness, brings them out of hell and into new lives (source). Some Taoists maintain that Tai Yi Jiu Ku Tian Cun (also known as "Heavenly Worthy Tai Yi" or "The Savior from Suffering") judges all souls, either giving them a cleansing holy water or striking them with a sword and sending them to a ten-stage hell (source). Other beliefs exist as well.
Many modern Taoists reject the idea of hell, at least if taken literally. One article by Derek Lin encourages readers to reject the "eternal torment, everlasting pain nonsense" and recognize that hell and heaven only exist within us. He cites a traditional story:
Once upon a time, a man with a certain military bearing approached the Zen master Hakuin and asked: "Master, do Heaven and Hell actually exist?"
The master wanted to answer in the affirmative, but knew that this would give the man a false impression. In all likelihood the man operated under the mundane paradigm that Heaven and Hell exist as places for souls in the afterlife. The master knew what he must do to break through that false preconception.
"What is your occupation?" He asked.
"I'm a general." This explained the military bearing about him.
The master burst out laughing. "What idiot would ask you to command an army? You look more like a butcher to me!"
This enraged the general. With a roar he drew his sword. He could cut down this defenseless old man in an instant.
"Here lie the gates of Hell," said the master. These simple words stopped the powerful general dead in his tracks.
Realization flooded in. The general sudden understood that the master had risked his life in order to teach him a great truth in the most effective way imaginable.
"Forgive me, master, for what I was able to do." He felt all at once gratitude, amazement, and shame.
"Here lie the gates of Heaven," said the master.
Are Adherents Saved?
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
The Chinese conception of Diyu is as a hell of eighteen levels, where people are punished according to evil deeds during life. For instance (source):
Christians aim to avoid these actions for other reasons, so they would presumably fare okay. On the other hand, the sixteenth hell, the Chamber of Blood, is for "Blasphemous crooks who show no respect to the gods" (source). I'm not sure whether Christians would fall into this category. Even if so, the punishment would last a finite time.
Many modern, especially Western, Taoists are tolerant in their outlook. One former Taoist recounts how he was drawn to the religion in part because "They condemn no one to an eternal hell, and require no belief" (source).
Existence of Free Will?
While it currently claims only 140,000 adherents, Zoroastrianism is a potentially important religion to consider because, as Mary Boyce notes in her Zoroastrians: Their Religious Beliefs and Practices, "Zoroastrianism is the oldest of the revealed credal religions, and it has probably had more influence on mankind, directly or indirectly, than any other single faith." This is because it developed very early on ideas of monotheism, heaven, hell, judgement, and resurrection (source).
Existence of Eternal Hell?
Zoroastrianism developed the doctrine of heaven, hell, and judgement during the Achaemenid era: 648–330 BCE (source). According to Eileen Gardiner, Zoroastrianism is not unified on the question of whether hell is eternal:
The fate of wicked souls after the Frashgird [apocalypse] evolved in Zoroastrianism. Scholars of Zoroastrianism find that in earlier texts, the souls would be subjected to everlasting punishment in hell, later the belief was that they would be destroyed in the molten metal of the Apocalypse, and even later belief holds that the molten metal will actually purify everything, allowing even the wicked to proceed to heaven. However, the ultimate fate of the wicked is not conclusively explained in any of the hell texts themselves.
The Wikipedia article on Zoroastrianism simply declares that "the Zoroastrian personal judgement is not final. At the end of time, when evil is finally defeated, all souls will be ultimately reunited with their Fravashi. Thus, Zoroastrianism can be said to be a universalist religion with respect to salvation." Meredith Sprunger's "An Introduction to Zoroastrianism" confirms this, noting the Zoroastrian belief that at the end of the age, there will come three saviors, each a thousand years apart, after which Ahura Mazda will destroy the evil Angra Mainyu and rescue the souls in hell.
Are Adherents Saved?
Are Nonbelievers Saved?
Many Zoroastrians believe that people are meant to have the religion that they were born into; hence it has been traditional to discourage conversion to Zoroastrianism, although some have disagreed with this doctrine (source). Moreover, belief in the religion per se may not be so important, because judgement is based on actions. Zoroastrianism holds that those whose "good thoughts, words and deeds outweigh the bad" will go to heaven (source), while everyone else will go to hell. To quote Eileen Gardiner again: "Punishments correlate to sins. The Book of Arda Viraf, in particular, describes 85 punishments and specifies the sins that occasion them. [...] Usual sins include sodomy and adultery; theft, lying, perjury, deceit, slander, extortion, making false covenants, breaking promises, and murder." Gardiner mentions other wicked actions, including child abuse, abortion, infanticide, religious apostasy, magic, improper administration of justice, animal cruelty, laziness, vanity, and greed. Nearly all of these are considered sins in Christianity as well. Thus, Christians would presumably avoid at least some of the tortures in the Zoroastrian hell just by living good, charitable lives.
Existence of Free Will?
Man is believed to have complete freedom in life to choose whether to give in to the forces of good or evil (source). A detailed exposition of free will in Zoroastrianism can be found here.
Christianity as a Natural Religion for Pascal's Wager
Some religions are based around a particular ethnic group or geographic area and aren't interested in seeking outsiders to join them. In contrast, Christianity is a universal religion, i.e., it aims to spread its message to all people. As Matthew 28:18-20 reports: "And Jesus came up and spoke to them, saying, 'All authority has been given to Me in heaven and on earth. Go therefore and make disciples of all the nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and the Son and the Holy Spirit, teaching them to observe all that I commanded you [...].'"
Historically, many Christians have not been shy about encouraging people to convert on the basis of fear of hell. In his famous "Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God," Jonathan Edwards warned his listeners about the terrible fury of the Lord:
The wrath of God burns against them, their damnation does not slumber; the pit is prepared, the fire is made ready, the furnace is now hot, ready to receive them; the flames do now rage and glow. The glittering sword is whet, and held over them, and the pit hath opened its mouth under them. [...]
It is everlasting wrath. It would be dreadful to suffer this fierceness and wrath of Almighty God one moment; but you must suffer it to all eternity. There will be no end to this exquisite horrible misery. When you look forward, you shall see a long for ever, a boundless duration before you, which will swallow up your thoughts, and amaze your soul; and you will absolutely despair of ever having any deliverance, any end, any mitigation, any rest at all. You will know certainly that you must wear out long ages, millions of millions of ages, in wrestling and conflicting with this almighty merciless vengeance; and then when you have so done, when so many ages have actually been spent by you in this manner, you will know that all is but a point to what remains.
In the same speech, Edwards noted: "The use of this awful subject may be for awakening unconverted persons in this congregation. This that you have heard is the case of every one of you that are out of Christ." Similar messages are frequently heard today, such as in this sermon by Bob Donohue. Ideas of "spreading the Gospel" and "saving souls"--while often mocked or frowned upon by outsiders--are earnestly held by some groups of Christians, which indicates something about the quasi-Pascalian motivations of those believers. In short, Christianity is not just a good choice because it happens to satisfy considerations 2-5 pretty well; in addition, a number of Christians actually embrace the idea of using Pascal's wager (or fear of hell more generally) as a way of beginning down the road toward faith. That journey, once begun, can then become more genuine over time.
Conclusion
As we have seen above, many religions view hell as a temporary state of atonement for sins, rather than a place of eternal judgement. Moreover, many religions punish souls on the basis of evil deeds during life more than failure to worship the correct god(s). From a Pascalian viewpoint, there is less reason to believe in these religions than in a religion like Christianity, which many (though certainly not all) Christians would agree maintains that hell is a place of eternal judgement that cannot be avoided or overcome merely by attempting to live righteously ("for all have sinned and fall short of the glory of God"--Romans 3:23).
I hesitated to give a boiled-down summary of the ideas discussed in this piece, because the religions considered are too varied and intricate to fit neatly into categories. Nevertheless, for the sake of reminding readers what they have read and for the sake of giving a quick overview to those who lack the time to follow the entire discussion, here is a simplified summary chart. The entries in the middle four columns, in order of affirmation, are "yes," "probably," "maybe," "probably not," and "no." Readers may very well disagree with these classifications; if so, I encourage them to email me with their opinions if they wish to take the time.
| Religion | Does hell exist? | Is hell eternal if it exists? | Do people have free will regarding salvation? | Would nonbelievers (esp. Christians) leading good lives avoid hell, if it exists? | Views on conversion (source) |
| Atheism | No | No | Maybe | Indifferent / encouraged | |
| Baha'i | No | Yes | Yes / Probably | "Teaching the faith" preferred over proselytism | |
| Buddhism | Maybe | No | Probably | Tolerated, formerly encouraged | |
| Christianity | Probably | Yes | Probably | Probably not | Encouraged |
| computer simulation | Maybe | Probably not | Probably not | Probably | |
| Confucianism | Maybe | No | Maybe | ||
| Greek mythology | Maybe | Maybe | Yes | Probably | |
| Hinduism | Probably | No | Maybe | Sometimes not allowed, often seen as unnecessary | |
| Islam | Yes | Probably / Maybe | Maybe / Probably Not | Maybe (for Christians and Jews) | Encouraged |
| Jainism | Probably | No | Maybe | Not officially allowed, but individuals may call themselves Jain | |
| Judaism | Maybe | No | Probably | Accepted by many Reform and Conservative groups, often discouraged by Orthodox groups | |
| Mormonism | Probably | Probably not | Maybe | Encouraged | |
| Omega Point (Tipler) | Yes | Yes | Yes | Convert to Christianity (?) | |
| religious pluralism | Maybe | Maybe | Maybe | Maybe | Many possibilities |
| Shinto | |||||
| Sikhism | Probably not | No | Maybe | Tolerated | |
| Taoism | Maybe | No | Probably | ||
| Zoroastrianism | Yes | Probably not | Yes | Probably | Probably not allowed |
In closing, I'll emphasize that if you don't find the material presented above convincing, then consider also the intrinsic probabilities of the religions discussed, as well as non-Pascalian reasons to adopt a particular faith. If you're not especially motivated to follow through on Pascal's wager, then give thought also to the amount of effort that will be required in converting. If you're like most readers of this article, then Christianity is probably the easiest of the above religions to choose, because most places in North American and Europe have churches nearby, whereas mosques and Hindu temples are probably harder to find. In addition, if you live in the West, it's probably easier to interact with other members of society as a Christian than as a Zoroastrian, a Muslim, or perhaps even a Jew. Finally, observing Christian obligations may simply be easier than, say, observing the Muslim rituals of praying five times a day, making a pilgrimage to Mecca, and fasting from morning to evening every day during the month of Ramadan (see Five Pillars of Islam). To an observant Muslim, these practices would be seen as purifying rather than burdensome, but to someone reluctantly accepting Pascal's wager, they might indeed be an obstacle. In theory, the onerousness of a religion during this lifetime is irrelevant, because it's at most a finite cost (if indeed it is a cost, overall) compared against a nonzero chance of infinite benefit. But in practice, if a religion is easier to adopt (as I expect Christianity is for most readers), the person accepting Pascal's wager is more likely to follow through successfully.
Whatever you do, give the matter of hell serious thought, for, as this site notes, "Eternity is a very long time to be wrong..." In 1939, on the brink of World War II, C. S. Lewis made the following apt comparison in an address to Oxford undergraduates:
A University is a society for the pursuit of learning. As students, you will be expected to make yourselves, or to start making yourselves, in to what the Middle Ages called clerks: into philosophers, scientists, scholars, critics, or historians. And at first sight this seems to be an odd thing to do during a great war. What is the use of beginning a task which we have so little chance of finishing? Or, even if we ourselves should happen not to be interrupted by death or military service, why should we -- indeed how can we -- continue to take an interest in these placid occupations when the lives of our friends and the liberties of Europe are in the balance? Is it not like fiddling while Rome burns?
Now it seems to me that we shall not be able to answer these questions until we have put them by the side of certain other questions which every Christian ought to have asked himself in peace-time. I spoke just now of fiddling while Rome burns. But to a Christian the true tragedy of Nero must be not that he fiddles while the city was on fire but that he fiddles on the brink of hell. [...] every Christian who comes to a university must at all times face a question compared with which the questions raised by the war are relatively unimportant. He must ask himself how it is right, or even psychologically possible, for creatures who are every moment advancing either to heaven or to hell, to spend any fraction of the little time allowed them in this world on such comparative trivialities as literature or art, mathematics or biology.
I conclude with the following passage from Pascal's Pensees (199-206):
Let us imagine a number of men in chains and all condemned to death, where some are killed each day in the sight of the others, and those who remain see their own fate in that of their fellows and wait their turn, looking at each other sorrowfully and without hope. It is an image of the condition of men.
A man in a dungeon, ignorant whether his sentence be pronounced and having only one hour to learn it, but this hour enough, if he knew that it is pronounced, to obtain its repeal, would act unnaturally in spending that hour, not in ascertaining his sentence, but in playing piquet. [...]
When I consider the short duration of my life, swallowed up in the eternity before and after, the little space which I fill and even can see,
engulfed in the infinite immensity of spaces of which I am ignorant and which know me not, I am frightened and am astonished at being here rather than there; for there is no reason why here rather than there, why now rather than then. Who has put me here? By whose order and direction have this place and time been allotted to me? Memoria hospitis unius diei praetereuntis. [Wisdom of Solomon 5:15: "The remembrance of a guest that tarrieth but a day."]The eternal silence of these infinite spaces frightens me.
[1] One common and sincere objection to this line of thinking is the feeling that "I wouldn't want to worship a God who condemns people to eternal torment." I agree this is tough to do, but it doesn't help anyone involved for you to angrily defy such a God if he exists. I would rather be "on the inside" of God's community, where I can pray to God to have mercy on those who might be suffering in hell (which I do on a regular basis) and where I can earnestly raise these tough questions about the terribleness of eternal torment without having to take an antagonistic stance.